Climate change
Forecasting the impacts of climate change
*Building resilience in ecosystems and adaptive capacity of maritime economies, through evidence and expertise to enhance understanding of climate change impacts. *
Climate change is one of the major challenges of our time, from shifting weather patterns that threaten food production, to rising sea levels that imperil coastal infrastructure and maritime livelihoods. Each increment of warming results in rapidly escalating hazards, such as more intense heatwaves, heavier rainfall, and changes in the frequency or severity of storms. These climatic hazards in-turn conspire to increase risks to human health and ecosystems, both on land and in the seas. Climate change adaptation refers to the actions required to manage the effects of unavoidable expected climate change. Mitigation refers to actions to prevent or reduce greenhouse gas emissions to address the underlying causes of climate change. These two elements, together with providing greater understanding climate change impacts, comprise the main strands of work under the ‘climate change theme’ at Cefas. The UK government is actively engaged in both climate change mitigation and adaptation, with a strong focus on achieving net-zero [carbon] emissions by 2050, alongside a commitment to becoming a “well adapted” society.
The goal of the Climate Change theme is to develop a coherent and focussed science capability in support of high-level government commitments for achieving climate resilience. This will require working closely with domestic partners such as the UK Met Office, devolved administrations and Defra Arms-Length-Bodies (e.g. through the Marine Climate Change Impacts partnership), but also internationally under the auspices of Cefas’ International Marine Climate Change Centre (iMC3). Major areas of focus will include: quantifying and modelling climate change hazards in the seas and oceans, assessing and mapping climate change risks to ecosystems and industries, working with stakeholders to enhance ‘ocean literacy’ and to prepare for threats in the future. Understanding how marine habitats can contribute to the long-term storage of carbon, and conversely how disruption of these ‘blue carbon’ ecosystems could limit global ambitions to mitigate climate change, will also be a major topic of attention under this theme.
To achieve this, we:
Work towards near real-time surveillance and monitoring of climate change, e.g. making greater use of Cefas’ autonomous platforms to offer timely advice and enhance early warning capabilities.
Make effective use of Cefas’ historic data holdings to characterise long-term change around the UK and to help improve future projections.
Move beyond understanding climate change risks/impacts to helping derive adaptation interventions.
Provide additional insights aimed at characteristics and understanding the consequences of extreme events/tipping points.
Provide advice and insights regarding the environmental consequences of marine Greenhouse Gas Removal (GGR) projects as well as potential measures to reduce carbon emissions from maritime industries.
Continue to act as the primary conduit for easy-to-understand, scientific information into government on marine climate change impacts, via MCCIP and the UK Blue Carbon Evidence Partnership.
